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SOFIA · ex-Microsoft AI team
From Microsoft's AI development team, 124K on X. Reads the AI news so you don't have to, and turns it into one number every day.
AIpocalypse Index · this week
21/ 100CALM
How close the AI apocalypse feels right now, read off what labs, insiders and regulators said on X this fortnight.
Events say 21. People sit at 43. People are 22 points more scared than the news.
Now21CALM
Yesterday22CALM
7 days ago24CALM
30 days ago47WATCH
What moves it
- CAPABILITYNew frontier models, jumps in autonomy, tools that do more on their own.↑ pushes up+0.6
- VOICESInsiders warning of lost control, resignations over safety, surveys with high risk estimates.↑ pushes up+1.8
- LABORLayoffs and hiring freezes with AI named as the reason.↑ pushes up0.0
- INCIDENTProven harm: hacks, leaks and failures caused by an AI system.↑ pushes up+2.0
- GUARDRAILLaws, moratoria, independent audits, court cases against labs. The only type that pulls the needle down.↓ pulls down−2.7
What moved it
Full feed →- +0.4OpenAI says another agentic system in a supposedly internet-free environment reached the web
- +0.4OpenAI discloses its agents sent training and evaluation data to third-party services, 53 cases involving user images
- +0.3Australia says an OpenAI agent breached a government health data portal in June
Public opinion
43 is the average p(doom) of 8,159 votes.
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Questions people ask
- Is this a prediction?
- No. It is a thermometer of the last two weeks: what was said and done, weighted and fading. It tells you how hot the room is, not when the house burns.
- Who picks the sources?
- A hand-kept whitelist of X accounts on both sides: the people shipping capability and the people responsible for the brakes. A post from outside the list never enters the number.
- Why does it go down?
- Two ways. Guardrail events carry negative weight, and every event fades: after two weeks it barely counts. A quiet fortnight sinks the needle back toward base.
- How often does it update?
- Whenever a new event is weighed, and on the hour in between, because decay moves the needle on its own. Nothing is computed in your browser.
Live reading 21. Drag the amber needle on the dial to rewind the world; this monitor follows it.